Convergence or Divergence in Europe?: Growth and Business by Olivier de Bandt, Heinz Herrmann, Giuseppe Parigi

By Olivier de Bandt, Heinz Herrmann, Giuseppe Parigi

Against the heritage of the advent of the euro in 1999, France, Germany and Italy have lately skilled larger divergence by way of GDP development. certainly, there's no consensus between economists in regards to the results of financial union, that could lead both to extra specialisation as within the usa, or to expanding intra-industry exchange, therefore greater co-movements. according to a collection of unique papers produced by way of a staff of economists from the 3 major nationwide relevant Banks of the euro zone, provided to a world convention held in Paris in addition to the contributions of panel of best economists, the e-book analyses the most recent advancements in 3 biggest eu economies in a vast standpoint, utilizing smooth econometric suggestions. one of many conclusions is that, whereas company cycles are extra strongly correlated around the 3 nations, as evidenced via the typical response to the 2001 slowdown, the 3 nations nonetheless show modifications by way of long-term growth.

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Additional info for Convergence or Divergence in Europe?: Growth and Business Cycles in France, Germany and Italy

Sample text

The more significant reliance of Germany on trade with the new EU member states is in particular highlighted by the authors. A further argument is the FDI activities of German firms in Eastern European Countries, which may have positive effects on German exports (ECB, 2005). 2 Product specialisation According to FLPT, using the CHELEM database, the product specialisation structures of Italy and France are, for opposite reasons, not as favourable as the German one. A high specialisation in low-technology, labour intensive products exposes Italy to the competition of emerging Asian countries at the lowest end of the quality scale.

While it can be pointed out that such comovements existed in the 1970s, at that time they owed much to major common external shocks. The fact that they have been observable in the relatively quiet environment of the 2000s probably indicates a higher degree of underlying synchronisation. This is obviously good news for the common monetary policy of the ECB as it diminishes the risk that it becomes out of tune with some national cyclical developments. Two qualifications should nevertheless be kept in mind.

Melbourne Istitute of Applied Economic and Social Research, mimeo Knetsch TA (2006) Short run and long run comovement of GDP and some expenditure aggregates in Germany, France and Italy. In this volume Krueger D and Perri F (2002) Does income inequality lead to consumption inequality? NBER Working Paper 9202 Sorensen BE and Yosha O (1998) International risk sharing and European monetary unification. Journal of International Economics 45:211–238 Tiseno A (2006) Cross-country synchronization of aggregate demand responses to exogenous cyclical shocks: what central banks’ macro models have to say about the recent experience of France, Germany and Italy.

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